Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Tommies UND @ STMN

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

17-16  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 10:30 PM ET
Denny Sanford Premier Center
View Odds Details →

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

24-8  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
TOMMIES
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
TOMMIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 TommiesSTMN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

38.2%

Tommies Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)

UND By 1-7 points

21.6%

UND By 8-14 points

10.7%

STMN By 1-7 points

27.2%

STMN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NORTH DAKOTA
72
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
65
NORTH DAKOTA
72
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tommies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tommies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tommies (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Tommies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UND @ STMN 67 - 66
Jan 29, 2026 UND @ STMN 81 - 80
Jan 15, 2026 STMN @ UND 91 - 80
Mar 8, 2025 UND @ STMN 69 - 85
Feb 27, 2025 UND @ STMN 71 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +108.1% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 4.1 vs North Dakota: 2.0
Assists (L5) +37.1% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 17.3 vs North Dakota: 12.6
Field Goal % (L5) +7.9%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 51.5% vs North Dakota: 43.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 39.8% vs North Dakota: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 69.0 67
STMN Score 72.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 34.0 17.0 / 37.0
Assists 17.3 / 12.6 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.0 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 43.5 42.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 66.0 / 69.8 60.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 31.8 39.0 / 25.0
Steals 4.6 / 6.8 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 9.1 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
STMN
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
UND
STMN
UND
ML
64% 21-12
44% 15-19
64% 21-12
50% 17-17
ATS
70% 23-10
50% 17-17
64% 21-12
50% 17-17
TTL
61% 20-13
65% 22-12
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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