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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

31-25-7  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 12:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

34-22-5  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
@
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Logan Thompson None-None 2.07 0.931 --
Jeremy Swayman None-None 1.00 0.957 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.07 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.931 Save % Ldr 0.957
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
📊
BRUINS
100%
CAPITALS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 BruinsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

30.9%

Bruins Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BOS +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

BOS By 1 goal

12.1%

BOS By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
2
BOSTON
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 BOS @ WSH 3 - 2
Mar 7, 2026 WSH @ BOS 1 - 3
Oct 8, 2025 BOS @ WSH 3 - 1
Oct 2, 2025 BOS @ WSH 3 - 1
Sep 21, 2025 WSH @ BOS 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +21.4% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Boston: 13.2
Power Play % (L5) +6.4%
Boston: 20.3% vs Washington: 13.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 1
BOS Score 2.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
45%MONEY55%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
WSH
BOS
WSH
ML
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
TTL
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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