GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
32-30 | Road
97
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
49-15 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
THUNDER
100%
WARRIORS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
GS By 1-7 points
26.2%
GS By 8-14 points
16.9%
OKC By 1-7 points
24.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
113
GOLDEN STATE
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Golden State
112
GOLDEN STATE
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+13)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o219.5
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u219.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
GS @ OKC
97 - 104
Jan 2, 2026
OKC @ GS
131 - 94
Dec 2, 2025
OKC @ GS
124 - 112
Nov 11, 2025
GS @ OKC
102 - 126
Jan 29, 2025
OKC @ GS
109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.7% more
Golden State: 30.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 23.6
Turnovers (L5)
+19.0% more
Golden State: 16.0
vs
Oklahoma City: 13.0
Blocks (L5)
+10.1% more
Golden State: 4.0
vs
Oklahoma City: 3.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Golden State: 34.5%
vs
Oklahoma City: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
113.0
97
OKC Score
112.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.4 / 34.5
36.0 / 31.0
Assists
23.6 / 30.1
24.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.0
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 45.6
42.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 74.9
96.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
44.8 / 44.5
42.0 / 47.0
Steals
9.4 / 8.9
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 16.0
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
GS
OKC
GS
ML
70%
80-34
55%
95-79
48%
46-49
58%
49-35
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
101-73
48%
46-49
58%
49-35
TTL
67%
76-38
77%
134-40
100%
95-0
100%
84-0
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