PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
14-16 | Road
79
GEORGETOWN
HOYASGTWN
13-17 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
HOYAS
0%
FRIARS
--
HOYAS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
GEORGETOWN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Georgetown)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GTWN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GTWN)
PROV By 1-7 points
21.6%
PROV By 8-14 points
10.7%
GTWN By 1-7 points
27.2%
GTWN By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
77
PROVIDENCE
Georgetown
80
GEORGETOWN
Simulated Score
Providence
72
PROVIDENCE
Georgetown
68
GEORGETOWN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hoyas
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Friars
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hoyas (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Friars (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
PROV @ GTWN
79 - 80
Jan 24, 2026
GTWN @ PROV
81 - 78
Feb 19, 2025
PROV @ GTWN
72 - 93
Jan 25, 2025
GTWN @ PROV
68 - 78
Mar 13, 2024
GTWN @ PROV
56 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+83.1% more
Georgetown: 17.0
vs
Providence: 9.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Georgetown: 45.5%
vs
Providence: 43.5%
Rebounding (L5)
+8.3% more
Providence: 36.9
vs
Georgetown: 33.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.4%
Providence: 76.2%
vs
Georgetown: 69.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
77.0
79
GTWN Score
80.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.0 / 35.9
33.0 / 43.0
Assists
17.0 / 9.3
20.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 43.5
53.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
69.8 / 76.2
87.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 36.9
25.0 / 38.0
Steals
4.9 / 5.0
13.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 13.1
12.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
GTWN
Advantage
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
GTWN
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GTWN
PROV
GTWN
PROV
ML
67%
22-11
59%
19-13
73%
22-8
67%
20-10
ATS
58%
19-14
50%
16-16
73%
22-8
67%
20-10
TTL
58%
19-14
44%
14-18
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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