CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-23 | Road
76
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
13-18 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
0%
MUSTANGS
100%
ROADRUNNERS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CP +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
CSUB By 1-7 points
26.2%
CSUB By 8-14 points
16.9%
CP By 1-7 points
24.3%
CP By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Bakersfield
93
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Cal Poly
92
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
Cal State Bakersfield
70
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Cal Poly
74
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o175.5
Win
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim
u175.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
CSUB @ CP
76 - 108
Jan 29, 2026
CP @ CSUB
104 - 79
Mar 1, 2025
CSUB @ CP
72 - 98
Jan 30, 2025
CP @ CSUB
90 - 81
Mar 2, 2024
CSUB @ CP
68 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+53.2% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 9.9
vs
Cal Poly: 4.6
Blocks (L5)
+38.4% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 3.6
vs
Cal Poly: 2.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Cal State Bakersfield: 45.3%
vs
Cal Poly: 41.9%
Rebounding (L5)
+25.8% more
Cal Poly: 39.9
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 31.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score
93.0
76
CP Score
92.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 26.9
36.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.9 / 13.3
21.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.6
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 45.3
48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
87.7 / 71.1
79.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
39.9 / 31.8
46.0 / 38.0
Steals
4.6 / 9.9
11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 11.0
9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
CP
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
CSUB
CP
CSUB
ML
58%
19-14
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
71%
22-9
ATS
64%
21-12
61%
19-12
58%
19-14
71%
22-9
TTL
61%
20-13
58%
18-13
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
