STONEHILL
SKYHAWKSSTO
12-20 | Road
51
MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
16-16 | Home
56
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
0%
LAKERS
100%
SKYHAWKS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
STONEHILL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Stonehill)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STO -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STO)
STO By 1-7 points
23.0%
STO By 8-14 points
27.2%
MERC By 1-7 points
10.7%
MERC By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Stonehill
75
STONEHILL
Mercyhurst
65
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
Stonehill
68
STONEHILL
Mercyhurst
72
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Skyhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Skyhawks (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o134.5
Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
STO @ MERC
51 - 56
Feb 28, 2026
MERC @ STO
75 - 72
Jan 17, 2026
STO @ MERC
62 - 57
Feb 15, 2025
MERC @ STO
73 - 85
Jan 3, 2025
STO @ MERC
69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+11.1% more
Stonehill: 39.4
vs
Mercyhurst: 35.0
Turnovers (L5)
+10.5% more
Stonehill: 9.5
vs
Mercyhurst: 8.5
Assists (L5)
+8.5% more
Stonehill: 14.8
vs
Mercyhurst: 13.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Stonehill: 35.2%
vs
Mercyhurst: 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STO Score
75.0
51
MERC Score
65.0
56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 35.2
28.0 / 11.0
Assists
13.6 / 14.8
11.0 / 4.0
Blocks
4.3 / 4.1
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 42.6
35.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
81.9 / 70.5
85.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 39.4
40.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.3 / 5.7
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 9.5
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STO
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STO
14-15-2
(48.3%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5%
Total +/-: -4.0
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
STO
MERC
STO
ML
59%
20-14
45%
15-18
79%
26-7
70%
23-10
ATS
62%
21-13
39%
13-20
79%
26-7
70%
23-10
TTL
53%
18-16
55%
18-15
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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