UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
21-10 | Road
64
UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
18-12 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
0%
GAUCHOS
100%
TRITONS
--
GAUCHOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
UCSD By 1-7 points
20.1%
UCSD By 8-14 points
27.2%
UCSB By 1-7 points
8.0%
UCSB By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
86
UC SAN DIEGO
UC Santa Barbara
74
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
70
UC SAN DIEGO
UC Santa Barbara
75
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tritons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tritons (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UCSD @ UCSB
64 - 63
Jan 29, 2026
UCSB @ UCSD
62 - 48
Mar 14, 2025
UCSB @ UCSD
51 - 69
Jan 23, 2025
UCSB @ UCSD
63 - 77
Dec 5, 2024
UCSD @ UCSB
84 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+53.3% more
UC San Diego: 7.6
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+32.8% more
UC San Diego: 19.0
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 12.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
UC San Diego: 47.4%
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 43.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.9%
UC San Diego: 79.4%
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 75.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
86.0
64
UCSB Score
74.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 33.4
37.0 / 13.0
Assists
12.7 / 19.0
12.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.7
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 47.4
46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 79.4
100.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 36.8
34.0 / 26.0
Steals
3.6 / 7.6
2.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 11.8
17.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
UCSD
UCSB
UCSD
ML
59%
19-13
56%
19-15
72%
23-9
65%
22-12
ATS
62%
20-12
50%
17-17
72%
23-9
65%
22-12
TTL
47%
15-17
62%
21-13
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
