Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hoosiers @ Buckeyes IU @ OSU

INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

18-12  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 5:30 PM ET
Value City Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

19-11  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
0%
📊
BUCKEYES
100%
HOOSIERS --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Indiana)
HoosiersIU (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoosiers Cover

81.6%

Buckeyes Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

IU By 1-7 points

24.3%

IU By 8-14 points

26.8%

OSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

OSU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
78
INDIANA
69
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
71
INDIANA
75
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hoosiers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hoosiers (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 IU @ OSU 78 - 91
Mar 8, 2025 OSU @ IU 60 - 66
Jan 17, 2025 IU @ OSU 77 - 76
Feb 6, 2024 IU @ OSU 76 - 73
Jan 6, 2024 OSU @ IU 65 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +45.3% more
Indiana: 3.1 vs Ohio State: 1.7
Free Throw % (L5) +2.8%
Indiana: 73.0% vs Ohio State: 70.2%
Steals (L5) +51.3% more
Ohio State: 4.2 vs Indiana: 2.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.1%
Ohio State: 49.3% vs Indiana: 35.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 78.0 78
OSU Score 69.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 49.3 / 35.3 46.0 / 28.0
Assists 14.1 / 14.5 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.7 / 3.1 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 53.9 / 48.9 59.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 73.0 88.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 29.0 24.0 / 21.0
Steals 4.2 / 2.8 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 9.2 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
OSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
IU
OSU
IU
ML
53% 18-16
66% 21-11
73% 24-9
71% 22-9
ATS
59% 20-14
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
71% 22-9
TTL
56% 19-15
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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