Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Buccaneers CIT @ ETSU

THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

11-21  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Harrah's Cherokee Center
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

21-10  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
BULLDOGS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (East Tennessee State)
BulldogsCIT (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

9.7%

Buccaneers Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

CIT By 1-7 points

6.8%

CIT By 8-14 points

1.7%

ETSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

ETSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
72
THE CITADEL
85
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
65
THE CITADEL
78
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 CIT @ ETSU 76 - 83
Jan 23, 2026 CIT @ ETSU 55 - 84
Dec 30, 2025 ETSU @ CIT 74 - 49
Mar 1, 2025 ETSU @ CIT 81 - 66
Jan 11, 2025 CIT @ ETSU 52 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +33.1% more
East Tennessee State: 7.2 vs The Citadel: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +23.2% more
East Tennessee State: 10.2 vs The Citadel: 8.2
Rebounding (L5) +15.1% more
East Tennessee State: 33.3 vs The Citadel: 28.9
Free Throw % (L5) +11.7%
East Tennessee State: 75.0% vs The Citadel: 63.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 72.0 76
ETSU Score 85.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 37.0 40.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.4 / 14.5 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.5 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 46.5 56.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 75.0 / 63.3 55.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 28.9 29.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.2 / 5.4 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 8.2 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
CIT
ETSU
CIT
ML
42% 14-19
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
ATS
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
64% 21-12
TTL
45% 15-18
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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