Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Bears @ Demon Deacons CAL @ WAKE

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

21-9  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 4:00 PM ET
LJVM Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WAKE FOREST

DEMON DEACONSWAKE

15-15  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
📊
DEMON DEACONS
100%
GOLDEN BEARS --
DEMON DEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Golden BearsCAL (-3.5) 0 Demon DeaconsWAKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Bears Cover

34.5%

Demon Deacons Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WAKE +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)

CAL By 1-7 points

27.4%

CAL By 8-14 points

21.6%

WAKE By 1-7 points

20.1%

WAKE By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
85
CALIFORNIA
81
WAKE FOREST
Simulated Score
71
CALIFORNIA
82
WAKE FOREST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Demon Deacons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Demon Deacons (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Demon Deacons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 CAL @ WAKE 73 - 80
Feb 8, 2025 WAKE @ CAL 76 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.8% more
California: 11.0 vs Wake Forest: 8.7
Steals (L5) +20.8% more
California: 7.2 vs Wake Forest: 5.7
Assists (L5) +10.4% more
California: 14.8 vs Wake Forest: 13.2
Rebounding (L5) +8.7% more
California: 35.6 vs Wake Forest: 32.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 85.0 73
WAKE Score 81.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 27.9 30.0 / 28.0
Assists 13.2 / 14.8 14.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.2 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 43.0 41.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 83.9 / 74.7 77.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 35.6 45.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.2 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 11.0 12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
WAKE
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
WAKE
16-18-1 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
WAKE
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
CAL
WAKE
CAL
ML
49% 17-18
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
77% 24-7
ATS
66% 23-12
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
78% 25-7
TTL
60% 21-14
70% 23-10
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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