Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Tigers TA&M @ LSU

TEXAS A&M

AGGIESTA&M

20-10  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 6:00 PM ET
Pete Maravich Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LSU

TIGERSLSU

15-15  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
AGGIES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AggiesTA&M (-3.5) 0 TigersLSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

46.0%

Tigers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LSU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)

TA&M By 1-7 points

26.2%

TA&M By 8-14 points

16.9%

LSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

LSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
70
TEXAS A&M
69
LSU
Simulated Score
70
TEXAS A&M
75
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 TA&M @ LSU 94 - 91
Jan 3, 2026 LSU @ TA&M 72 - 75
Mar 8, 2025 TA&M @ LSU 66 - 52
Jan 18, 2025 LSU @ TA&M 57 - 68
Jan 20, 2024 TA&M @ LSU 73 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.6% more
Texas A&M: 6.2 vs LSU: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +31.9% more
LSU: 11.7 vs Texas A&M: 8.9
Blocks (L5) +23.1% more
LSU: 3.4 vs Texas A&M: 2.7
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
LSU: 78.9% vs Texas A&M: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 70.0 94
LSU Score 69.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.0 / 36.0 29.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.6 / 14.9 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.7 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 45.4 44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 78.9 / 71.3 70.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 35.0 54.0 / 49.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.2 9.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 8.9 22.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +2.0
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
TA&M
LSU
TA&M
ML
62% 20-12
67% 20-10
62% 20-12
54% 15-13
ATS
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
62% 20-12
54% 15-13
TTL
72% 23-9
70% 21-9
100% 32-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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