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GEORGIA

BULLDOGSUGA

21-9  |  Road

102
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 3:30 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

13-17  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
BULLDOGS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Georgia)
BulldogsUGA (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

84.1%

Bulldogs Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UGA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)

UGA By 1-7 points

23.0%

UGA By 8-14 points

27.2%

MSST By 1-7 points

10.7%

MSST By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
83
GEORGIA
73
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
71
GEORGIA
78
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UGA @ MSST 102 - 96
Feb 8, 2025 MSST @ UGA 76 - 75
Feb 7, 2024 UGA @ MSST 62 - 75
Jan 11, 2023 MSST @ UGA 50 - 58
Jan 12, 2022 UGA @ MSST 72 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.4% more
Georgia: 5.2 vs Mississippi State: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5) +24.7%
Georgia: 82.1% vs Mississippi State: 57.4%
Steals (L5) +20.1% more
Georgia: 6.3 vs Mississippi State: 5.0
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
Georgia: 15.9 vs Mississippi State: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UGA Score 83.0 102
MSST Score 73.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 42.5 39.0 / 59.0
Assists 13.3 / 15.9 16.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.8 / 5.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 51.7 58.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 57.4 / 82.1 85.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 30.4 / 32.9 31.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.0 / 6.3 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 9.5 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA Advantage
15-17-1 (46.9%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +4.9
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
UGA
MSST
UGA
ML
66% 21-11
67% 22-11
55% 17-14
56% 18-14
ATS
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
55% 17-14
56% 18-14
TTL
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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