Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mustangs @ Seminoles SMU @ FSU

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

19-11  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Tucker Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

16-14  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
SEMINOLES
0%
MUSTANGS --
SEMINOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Florida State)
MustangsSMU (-3.5) 0 SeminolesFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

30.9%

Seminoles Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

SMU By 1-7 points

18.6%

SMU By 8-14 points

8.0%

FSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

FSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SMU
78
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
71
SMU
76
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seminoles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seminoles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seminoles (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Seminoles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 SMU @ FSU 78 - 91
Jan 24, 2026 FSU @ SMU 80 - 83
Mar 8, 2025 SMU @ FSU 69 - 76
Dec 16, 2023 SMU @ FSU 68 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.2% more
Florida State: 4.4 vs SMU: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +8.8% more
SMU: 11.1 vs Florida State: 10.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
SMU: 37.0% vs Florida State: 35.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 73.0 78
FSU Score 78.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 37.0 47.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.3 / 13.9 19.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.7 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 46.5 52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 71.4 63.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 35.0 29.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.2 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 11.1 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
SMU
FSU
SMU
ML
64% 21-12
59% 20-14
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
ATS
55% 18-15
62% 21-13
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
TTL
48% 16-17
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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