Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Crimson Tide AUB @ ALA

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

16-14  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 8:30 PM ET
Coleman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

22-8  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
TIGERS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Alabama)
TigersAUB (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

42.1%

Crimson Tide Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

AUB By 1-7 points

23.0%

AUB By 8-14 points

12.2%

ALA By 1-7 points

26.8%

ALA By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
AUBURN
83
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
78
AUBURN
82
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u175.5 Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u175.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 AUB @ ALA 84 - 96
Feb 7, 2026 ALA @ AUB 96 - 92
Mar 8, 2025 ALA @ AUB 93 - 91
Feb 15, 2025 AUB @ ALA 94 - 85
Feb 7, 2024 ALA @ AUB 81 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.7% more
Alabama: 14.3 vs Auburn: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
Alabama: 35.8 vs Auburn: 31.7
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Alabama: 84.5% vs Auburn: 75.0%
Blocks (L5) +44.1% more
Auburn: 4.2 vs Alabama: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 81.0 84
ALA Score 83.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 37.6 26.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.3 / 11.7 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.4 / 4.2 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 48.4 52.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 84.5 / 75.0 65.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 31.7 42.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.5 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 10.8 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
ALA Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
AUB
ALA
AUB
ML
63% 22-13
58% 22-16
58% 19-14
75% 24-8
ATS
60% 21-14
74% 28-10
58% 19-14
75% 24-8
TTL
63% 22-13
53% 20-18
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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