Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tar Heels @ Blue Devils UNC @ DUKE

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

24-6  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 6:30 PM ET
Cameron Indoor Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

28-2  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
100%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
0%
TAR HEELS --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Duke)
Tar HeelsUNC (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tar Heels Cover

27.4%

Blue Devils Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

UNC By 1-7 points

16.9%

UNC By 8-14 points

6.8%

DUKE By 1-7 points

26.8%

DUKE By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
76
NORTH CAROLINA
82
DUKE
Simulated Score
72
NORTH CAROLINA
76
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UNC @ DUKE 61 - 76
Feb 7, 2026 DUKE @ UNC 68 - 71
Mar 14, 2025 UNC @ DUKE 71 - 74
Mar 8, 2025 DUKE @ UNC 82 - 69
Feb 1, 2025 UNC @ DUKE 70 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +39.1% more
Duke: 18.8 vs North Carolina: 13.5
Rebounding (L5) +17.4% more
Duke: 41.3 vs North Carolina: 35.2
Steals (L5) +9.9% more
Duke: 5.5 vs North Carolina: 5.0
Free Throw % (L5) +8.2%
Duke: 76.9% vs North Carolina: 68.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 76.0 61
DUKE Score 82.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.1 / 38.4 31.0 / 38.0
Assists 18.8 / 13.5 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.5 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.9 / 46.4 42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 68.8 53.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 41.3 / 35.2 42.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.5 / 5.0 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 9.9 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
DUKE
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
UNC
DUKE
UNC
ML
71% 27-11
76% 25-8
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
ATS
79% 30-8
73% 24-9
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
TTL
47% 18-20
55% 18-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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