Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Billikens @ Patriots SLU @ GMU

SAINT LOUIS

BILLIKENSSLU

27-3  |  Road

57
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 4:00 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

22-8  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
BILLIKENS
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
BILLIKENS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BillikensSLU (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Billikens Cover

38.2%

Patriots Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GMU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

SLU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SLU By 8-14 points

20.1%

GMU By 1-7 points

21.6%

GMU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SAINT LOUIS
70
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
68
SAINT LOUIS
72
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Billikens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 SLU @ GMU 57 - 86
Feb 11, 2025 GMU @ SLU 76 - 74
Jan 6, 2024 SLU @ GMU 67 - 79
Mar 9, 2023 GMU @ SLU 54 - 82
Jan 11, 2023 GMU @ SLU 62 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.4% more
Saint Louis: 16.7 vs George Mason: 11.8
Blocks (L5) +28.1% more
Saint Louis: 4.4 vs George Mason: 3.2
Steals (L5) +27.3% more
Saint Louis: 5.4 vs George Mason: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.5%
Saint Louis: 46.3% vs George Mason: 34.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SLU Score 73.0 57
GMU Score 70.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 46.3 37.0 / 17.0
Assists 11.8 / 16.7 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.4 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 52.8 58.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 73.3 85.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 31.8 41.0 / 26.0
Steals 3.9 / 5.4 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 11.2 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SLU Advantage
29-6-0 (82.9%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
GMU
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SLU Advantage
19-13-2 (59.4%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
GMU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SLU
18-16-0
O: 52.9% / U: 47.1% Total +/-: -0.3
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
SLU
GMU
SLU
ML
55% 18-15
70% 23-10
73% 24-9
68% 21-10
ATS
55% 18-15
73% 24-9
73% 24-9
68% 21-10
TTL
58% 19-14
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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