Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearkats @ Flames SHSU @ LIB

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

21-9  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Liberty Arena (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

24-6  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
📊
FLAMES
100%
BEARKATS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Sam Houston)
BearkatsSHSU (-3.5) 0 FlamesLIB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearkats Cover

91.9%

Flames Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

SHSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

LIB By 1-7 points

5.8%

LIB By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
85
SAM HOUSTON
71
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
68
SAM HOUSTON
72
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bearkats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bearkats (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 SHSU @ LIB 72 - 79
Jan 10, 2026 LIB @ SHSU 82 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 SHSU @ LIB 61 - 64
Jan 9, 2025 LIB @ SHSU 76 - 68
Feb 17, 2024 LIB @ SHSU 73 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +34.5% more
Sam Houston: 38.1 vs Liberty: 24.9
Steals (L5) +22.9% more
Sam Houston: 5.9 vs Liberty: 4.5
Blocks (L5) +18.3% more
Sam Houston: 3.2 vs Liberty: 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Sam Houston: 10.4 vs Liberty: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 85.0 72
LIB Score 71.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 44.1 39.0 / 50.0
Assists 16.3 / 16.6 20.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.2 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 47.7 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 76.0 82.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 24.9 / 38.1 30.0 / 37.0
Steals 4.5 / 5.9 3.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 10.4 8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
SHSU
LIB
SHSU
ML
50% 17-17
55% 18-15
53% 18-16
74% 23-8
ATS
62% 21-13
64% 21-12
53% 18-16
74% 23-8
TTL
41% 14-20
48% 16-17
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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