KANSAS STATE
WILDCATSKSU
12-18 | Road
85
KANSAS
JAYHAWKSKU
21-9 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
JAYHAWKS
0%
WILDCATS
--
JAYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Kansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)
KSU By 1-7 points
20.1%
KSU By 8-14 points
9.3%
KU By 1-7 points
27.4%
KU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas State
69
KANSAS STATE
Kansas
73
KANSAS
Simulated Score
Kansas State
72
KANSAS STATE
Kansas
78
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jayhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jayhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jayhawks (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Jayhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
KSU @ KU
85 - 104
Jan 24, 2026
KU @ KSU
86 - 62
Feb 8, 2025
KU @ KSU
73 - 81
Jan 18, 2025
KSU @ KU
74 - 84
Mar 5, 2024
KSU @ KU
68 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.3% more
Kansas: 4.5
vs
Kansas State: 3.4
Rebounding (L5)
+23.7% more
Kansas: 40.2
vs
Kansas State: 32.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.5%
Kansas: 80.4%
vs
Kansas State: 65.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+15.7% more
Kansas State: 15.1
vs
Kansas: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KSU Score
69.0
85
KU Score
73.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.9 / 31.3
42.0 / 36.0
Assists
12.0 / 14.0
23.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.5 / 3.4
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
36.9 / 44.0
59.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
80.4 / 65.9
60.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
40.2 / 32.5
45.0 / 28.0
Steals
7.1 / 7.4
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 15.1
12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -2.9
KU
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -2.9
KU
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +0.1
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
KSU
KU
KSU
ML
57%
20-15
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
69%
22-10
ATS
49%
17-18
62%
20-12
68%
21-10
69%
22-10
TTL
60%
21-14
47%
15-17
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
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