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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

38-18-4  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

27-25-11  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.02 0.931 --
Anthony Stolarz None-None 4.04 0.875 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.02 Ldr GAA 4.04
0.931 Ldr Save % 0.875
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
LIGHTNING --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 TB @ TOR 5 - 2
Feb 25, 2026 TOR @ TB 2 - 4
Dec 8, 2025 TB @ TOR 0 - 2
Apr 9, 2025 TOR @ TB 4 - 3
Jan 20, 2025 TB @ TOR 3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +14.7% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Toronto: 28.4
Takeaways (L5) +33.7% more
Toronto: 4.4 vs Tampa Bay: 3.3
Blocked Shots (L5) +31.9% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Tampa Bay: 12.9
Power Play % (L5) +7.7%
Toronto: 39.1% vs Tampa Bay: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 5
TOR Score 2.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
82%MONEY18%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TB
TOR
TB
ML
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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