Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Skyhawks @ Tigers UTM @ TNST

UT MARTIN

SKYHAWKSUTM

22-10  |  Road

55
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Ford Center
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

21-9  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
SKYHAWKS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Tennessee State)
SkyhawksUTM (-3.5) 0 TigersTNST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

8.1%

Tigers Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TNST -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)

UTM By 1-7 points

5.8%

UTM By 8-14 points

1.4%

TNST By 1-7 points

16.9%

TNST By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
62
UT MARTIN
76
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
71
UT MARTIN
75
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 UTM @ TNST 55 - 68
Feb 28, 2026 TNST @ UTM 67 - 42
Dec 18, 2025 UTM @ TNST 71 - 78
Feb 18, 2025 TNST @ UTM 86 - 75
Jan 21, 2025 UTM @ TNST 80 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.7% more
Tennessee State: 10.3 vs UT Martin: 7.0
Blocks (L5) +20.8% more
Tennessee State: 4.7 vs UT Martin: 3.9
Free Throw % (L5) +7.4%
Tennessee State: 80.8% vs UT Martin: 73.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Tennessee State: 45.0% vs UT Martin: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 62.0 55
TNST Score 76.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 26.0 41.0 / 29.0
Assists 10.3 / 11.6 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.9 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 37.8 47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 80.8 / 73.4 88.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 36.6 37.0 / 28.0
Steals 10.3 / 7.0 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 12.7 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -8.2
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
UTM
TNST
UTM
ML
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
63% 17-10
69% 20-9
ATS
68% 21-10
56% 18-14
64% 18-10
69% 20-9
TTL
52% 16-15
44% 14-18
100% 28-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days, 1 hour ago
LSU vs. McNeese: The Deep In-State Ties Behind Saturday's Rare S…
lsureveille 1 week ago
Memphis Basketball's Non-Conference Slate Ranked by Bart Torvik:…
yahoo 1 week, 2 days ago
Tigers Lock Up Broadcast Duo Dan Dickerson and Jason Benetti wit…
yahoo 2 weeks ago