Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Lakers IND @ LAL

INDIANA

PACERSIND

15-47  |  Road

117
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

37-25  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
PACERS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

42.1%

Lakers Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

IND By 1-7 points

26.8%

IND By 8-14 points

18.6%

LAL By 1-7 points

23.0%

LAL By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
115
INDIANA
113
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
INDIANA
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+9) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u235.5 Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim u235.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 LAL @ IND 137 - 130
Mar 6, 2026 IND @ LAL 117 - 128
Mar 26, 2025 LAL @ IND 120 - 119
Feb 8, 2025 IND @ LAL 117 - 124
Mar 29, 2024 LAL @ IND 90 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.1% more
Indiana: 15.5 vs Los Angeles: 13.2
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Indiana: 77.5% vs Los Angeles: 73.5%
Steals (L5) +83.1% more
Los Angeles: 9.8 vs Indiana: 5.3
Blocks (L5) +28.6% more
Los Angeles: 5.7 vs Indiana: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 115.0 117
LAL Score 113.0 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 33.3 46.0 / 23.0
Assists 29.0 / 28.1 25.0 / 33.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.4 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 45.9 53.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 77.5 91.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 37.3 43.0 / 40.0
Steals 9.8 / 5.3 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 15.5 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
IND
LAL
IND
ML
61% 68-43
48% 47-50
54% 49-42
54% 45-38
ATS
61% 67-43-1
59% 57-40
54% 49-42
54% 45-38
TTL
61% 66-43-2
54% 52-45
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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