Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Braves VAL @ BRAD

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

18-14  |  Road

84
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Enterprise Center
View Odds Details →

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

20-11  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
BEACONS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BRADLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Bradley)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 BravesBRAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

15.9%

Braves Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BRAD -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRAD)

VAL By 1-7 points

10.7%

VAL By 8-14 points

3.3%

BRAD By 1-7 points

23.0%

BRAD By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
64
VALPARAISO
74
BRADLEY
Simulated Score
68
VALPARAISO
75
BRADLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 VAL @ BRAD 84 - 90
Feb 18, 2026 BRAD @ VAL 72 - 79
Feb 3, 2026 VAL @ BRAD 65 - 72
Mar 8, 2025 VAL @ BRAD 65 - 70
Feb 26, 2025 BRAD @ VAL 76 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +101.3% more
Bradley: 4.7 vs Valparaiso: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +18.0% more
Bradley: 9.8 vs Valparaiso: 8.3
Assists (L5) +15.0% more
Bradley: 15.9 vs Valparaiso: 13.8
Rebounding (L5) +9.8% more
Bradley: 35.7 vs Valparaiso: 32.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 64.0 84
BRAD Score 74.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 39.2 20.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.9 / 13.8 17.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.7 / 2.3 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 41.6 42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 70.5 76.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 32.5 37.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.1 12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 8.3 11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
BRAD Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BRAD
VAL
BRAD
VAL
ML
65% 22-12
48% 16-17
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
ATS
59% 20-14
52% 17-16
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
TTL
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
thesunflower 48 minutes ago
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
yahoo 19 hours, 56 minutes ago
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Melvin Council Jr. Wins Eligibility Appeal, Returns to Kansas fo…
kwch 4 days ago
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
headtopics 4 days, 19 hours ago