PENNSYLVANIA
QUAKERSPENN
15-11 | Road
82
BROWN
BEARSBRWN
9-17 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
0%
BEARS
100%
QUAKERS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PENNSYLVANIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Pennsylvania)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PENN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PENN)
PENN By 1-7 points
27.2%
PENN By 8-14 points
23.0%
BRWN By 1-7 points
18.6%
BRWN By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pennsylvania
77
PENNSYLVANIA
Brown
72
BROWN
Simulated Score
Pennsylvania
75
PENNSYLVANIA
Brown
71
BROWN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Quakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Quakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Quakers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Quakers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
PENN @ BRWN
82 - 61
Jan 10, 2026
BRWN @ PENN
73 - 81
Feb 15, 2025
PENN @ BRWN
72 - 82
Jan 31, 2025
BRWN @ PENN
88 - 79
Feb 17, 2024
BRWN @ PENN
71 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+18.2% more
Pennsylvania: 37.4
vs
Brown: 30.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
Pennsylvania: 36.8%
vs
Brown: 29.2%
Blocks (L5)
+68.4% more
Brown: 2.6
vs
Pennsylvania: 1.6
Assists (L5)
+38.8% more
Brown: 16.1
vs
Pennsylvania: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PENN Score
77.0
82
BRWN Score
72.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 36.8
26.0 / 38.0
Assists
16.1 / 11.6
17.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.6 / 1.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 42.8
45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
68.1 / 63.7
50.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
30.6 / 37.4
37.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.7 / 6.9
10.0 / 19.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 10.3
23.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
BRWN
Advantage
9-18-0
(33.3%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
BRWN
Advantage
14-12-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
BRWN
12-13-0
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BRWN
PENN
BRWN
PENN
ML
56%
15-12
53%
16-14
67%
18-9
76%
22-7
ATS
59%
16-11
63%
19-11
67%
18-9
76%
22-7
TTL
59%
16-11
70%
21-9
100%
27-0
100%
29-0
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