Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Mocs CIT @ UTC

THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

10-21  |  Road

88
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 5:00 PM ET
Harrah's Cherokee Center
View Odds Details →

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

13-18  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
MOCS
0%
BULLDOGS --
MOCS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHATTANOOGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chattanooga)
BulldogsCIT (-3.5) 0 MocsUTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Mocs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTC)

CIT By 1-7 points

24.3%

CIT By 8-14 points

13.7%

UTC By 1-7 points

26.2%

UTC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
66
THE CITADEL
67
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
65
THE CITADEL
78
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mocs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mocs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mocs (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Mocs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 CIT @ UTC 88 - 85
Feb 21, 2026 UTC @ CIT 93 - 72
Feb 7, 2026 CIT @ UTC 78 - 71
Feb 22, 2025 CIT @ UTC 75 - 76
Jan 4, 2025 UTC @ CIT 81 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +21.7% more
Chattanooga: 35.2 vs The Citadel: 28.9
Assists (L5) +18.3% more
Chattanooga: 15.1 vs The Citadel: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5) +18.0%
Chattanooga: 78.5% vs The Citadel: 60.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Chattanooga: 50.0% vs The Citadel: 42.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 66.0 88
UTC Score 67.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 31.5 44.0 / 48.0
Assists 15.1 / 12.7 18.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.2 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 42.8 56.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 60.4 80.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 28.9 30.0 / 29.0
Steals 2.8 / 6.6 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 9.4 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTC Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
CIT
UTC
CIT
ML
48% 15-16
59% 19-13
53% 16-14
62% 20-12
ATS
52% 16-15
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
64% 21-12
TTL
77% 24-7
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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