Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Bears BELL @ CARK

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

13-18  |  Road

73
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 12:00 PM ET
VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

20-11  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
KNIGHTS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Central Arkansas)
KnightsBELL (-3.5) 0 BearsCARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

11.5%

Bears Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CARK -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

BELL By 1-7 points

8.0%

BELL By 8-14 points

2.2%

CARK By 1-7 points

20.1%

CARK By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
BELLARMINE
83
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
71
BELLARMINE
78
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 BELL @ CARK 73 - 86
Feb 11, 2026 BELL @ CARK 76 - 84
Jan 8, 2026 CARK @ BELL 78 - 84
Jan 4, 2025 BELL @ CARK 65 - 71
Feb 22, 2024 CARK @ BELL 65 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +75.1% more
Central Arkansas: 8.9 vs Bellarmine: 5.1
Rebounding (L5) +16.5% more
Central Arkansas: 32.8 vs Bellarmine: 28.2
Turnovers (L5) +11.5% more
Central Arkansas: 9.7 vs Bellarmine: 8.7
Blocks (L5) +53.8% more
Bellarmine: 2.8 vs Central Arkansas: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BELL Score 71.0 73
CARK Score 83.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 41.0 50.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.3 / 14.3 18.0 / 18.0
Blocks 1.3 / 2.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 54.3 58.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 81.4 / 83.3 79.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 28.2 26.0 / 25.0
Steals 8.9 / 5.1 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 8.7 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BELL
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BELL
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
BELL
CARK
BELL
ML
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
70% 23-10
94% 29-2
ATS
61% 20-13
72% 23-9
70% 23-10
94% 29-2
TTL
50% 16-16-1
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day, 3 hours ago
Rutgers Lands Four-Star Forward Brandon Woodard for 2027 Class
yahoo 1 week, 1 day ago
NC State Basketball: Justin Gainey Era Begins with 32-Game Slate…
si 4 weeks ago
Baylor Position-by-Position Preview: Can the Bears Avenge Auburn…
si 1 month ago
Boyd County Duo's Unforgettable Encounter with Larry Bird at His…
ashlandbeacon 1 month, 1 week ago