Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Hornets GRAM @ ALST

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

12-18  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Dunn-Oliver Acadome
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

10-20  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
TIGERS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
GRAMBLING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Grambling)
TigersGRAM (-3.5) 0 HornetsALST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

61.8%

Hornets Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GRAM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GRAM)

GRAM By 1-7 points

27.2%

GRAM By 8-14 points

20.1%

ALST By 1-7 points

21.6%

ALST By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
81
GRAMBLING
78
ALABAMA STATE
Simulated Score
68
GRAMBLING
73
ALABAMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 GRAM @ ALST 65 - 63
Feb 7, 2026 ALST @ GRAM 47 - 57
Mar 14, 2025 GRAM @ ALST 62 - 64
Mar 8, 2025 ALST @ GRAM 59 - 47
Feb 8, 2025 GRAM @ ALST 77 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.6% more
Grambling: 14.4 vs Alabama State: 11.0
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Grambling: 75.7% vs Alabama State: 68.8%
Blocks (L5) +71.0% more
Alabama State: 4.4 vs Grambling: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +8.8% more
Alabama State: 35.7 vs Grambling: 32.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GRAM Score 81.0 65
ALST Score 78.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 31.8 22.0 / 17.0
Assists 12.1 / 12.2 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.6 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 40.6 37.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 75.7 65.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 32.8 43.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.4 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 14.4 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GRAM Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GRAM Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALST
GRAM
ALST
GRAM
ML
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
76% 19-6
68% 17-8
ATS
65% 20-11
61% 19-12
76% 19-6
68% 17-8
TTL
52% 16-15
58% 18-13
100% 25-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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