Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Rockets GS @ HOU

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

31-30  |  Road

115
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 7:30 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

38-22  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
WARRIORS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Houston)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

3.6%

Rockets Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

GS By 1-7 points

2.7%

GS By 8-14 points

0.5%

HOU By 1-7 points

10.7%

HOU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
109
GOLDEN STATE
127
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
108
GOLDEN STATE
120
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o214.5 Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim u214.5 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +58.7% more
Houston: 5.7 vs Golden State: 3.6
Rebounding (L5) +14.7% more
Houston: 49.7 vs Golden State: 43.3
Turnovers (L5) +14.4% more
Houston: 16.7 vs Golden State: 14.6
Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Houston: 49.0% vs Golden State: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 109.0 115
HOU Score 127.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 33.3 41.0 / 37.0
Assists 24.4 / 30.6 26.0 / 29.0
Blocks 5.7 / 3.6 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 44.3 46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 80.3 / 75.8 73.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 49.7 / 43.3 49.0 / 47.0
Steals 8.1 / 8.4 11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.7 / 14.6 18.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
GS
HOU
GS
ML
61% 69-44
55% 95-79
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
ATS
62% 70-43
58% 101-73
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
TTL
51% 58-55
77% 134-40
100% 86-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Marcus Smart Reveals Why Lakers Let Him Walk: 'They Wanted to Go…
sportingnews 0 minutes ago
Walt Frazier Dubs Anthony Davis 'Street Clothes' as Wizards Debu…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 2 hours, 57 minutes ago
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 3 hours, 4 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 8 hours, 48 minutes ago