CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
13-17 | Road
85
UC IRVINE
ANTEATERSUCI
20-10 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
ANTEATERS
100%
MUSTANGS
--
ANTEATERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
UC IRVINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCI +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCI)
CP By 1-7 points
26.8%
CP By 8-14 points
24.3%
UCI By 1-7 points
16.9%
UCI By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
79
CAL POLY
UC Irvine
73
UC IRVINE
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
60
CAL POLY
UC Irvine
75
UC IRVINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Anteaters
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Anteaters (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Anteaters (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
CP @ UCI
85 - 107
Feb 12, 2026
UCI @ CP
73 - 79
Mar 14, 2025
CP @ UCI
78 - 96
Jan 18, 2025
CP @ UCI
71 - 101
Jan 2, 2025
UCI @ CP
98 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+21.3%
Cal Poly: 91.1%
vs
UC Irvine: 69.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Cal Poly: 32.8%
vs
UC Irvine: 27.5%
Blocks (L5)
+108.9% more
UC Irvine: 4.9
vs
Cal Poly: 2.4
Steals (L5)
+72.2% more
UC Irvine: 9.4
vs
Cal Poly: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
79.0
85
UCI Score
73.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.5 / 32.8
32.0 / 29.0
Assists
15.1 / 13.4
23.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.9 / 2.4
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 43.4
56.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
69.7 / 91.1
75.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 38.4
43.0 / 43.0
Steals
9.4 / 5.4
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 13.1
5.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCI
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCI
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
UCI
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCI
CP
UCI
CP
ML
57%
20-15
58%
19-14
53%
18-16
58%
19-14
ATS
63%
22-13
64%
21-12
53%
18-16
58%
19-14
TTL
57%
20-15
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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