Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearkats @ Blue Hens SHSU @ DEL

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

21-8  |  Road

80
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Bob Carpenter Center
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

BLUE HENSDEL

9-20  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
📊
BLUE HENS
100%
BEARKATS --
BLUE HENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Sam Houston)
BearkatsSHSU (-3.5) 0 Blue HensDEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearkats Cover

84.1%

Blue Hens Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

SHSU By 8-14 points

27.2%

DEL By 1-7 points

10.7%

DEL By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
78
SAM HOUSTON
68
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
67
SAM HOUSTON
73
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bearkats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Hens Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bearkats (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Blue Hens (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 SHSU @ DEL 80 - 83
Jan 8, 2026 DEL @ SHSU 60 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +56.5% more
Sam Houston: 4.3 vs Delaware: 1.9
Rebounding (L5) +31.6% more
Sam Houston: 37.1 vs Delaware: 25.4
Assists (L5) +31.1% more
Sam Houston: 14.9 vs Delaware: 10.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Sam Houston: 45.6% vs Delaware: 39.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 78.0 80
DEL Score 68.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 45.6 52.0 / 41.0
Assists 10.3 / 14.9 19.0 / 20.0
Blocks 1.9 / 4.3 10.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 51.0 52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 87.1 / 79.5 75.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 25.4 / 37.1 33.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.3 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 10.7 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
DEL
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
DEL
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
DEL
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
SHSU
DEL
SHSU
ML
45% 14-17
55% 18-15
52% 16-15
74% 23-8
ATS
61% 19-12
64% 21-12
52% 16-15
74% 23-8
TTL
65% 20-11
48% 16-17
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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