Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Flames LT @ LIB

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

16-13  |  Road

76
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Liberty Arena (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

24-5  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
FLAMES
0%
BULLDOGS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Liberty)
BulldogsLT (-3.5) 0 FlamesLIB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Flames Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LIB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)

LT By 1-7 points

24.3%

LT By 8-14 points

13.7%

LIB By 1-7 points

26.2%

LIB By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
68
LOUISIANA TECH
69
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
71
LOUISIANA TECH
75
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flames Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 LT @ LIB 76 - 71
Jan 8, 2026 LIB @ LT 72 - 56
Feb 6, 2025 LT @ LIB 53 - 77
Jan 11, 2025 LIB @ LT 74 - 79
Feb 10, 2024 LT @ LIB 62 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +9.4% more
Liberty: 14.5 vs Louisiana Tech: 13.3
Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
Liberty: 51.9% vs Louisiana Tech: 45.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Liberty: 39.1% vs Louisiana Tech: 33.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.9%
Liberty: 74.4% vs Louisiana Tech: 68.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 68.0 76
LIB Score 69.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 33.1 41.0 / 30.0
Assists 14.5 / 13.3 20.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.5 / 6.4 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.9 / 45.2 42.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 68.5 69.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 24.4 / 34.8 26.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.8 / 8.5 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 16.6 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
LT
LIB
LT
ML
50% 17-17
58% 19-14
53% 18-16
72% 23-9
ATS
62% 21-13
61% 20-13
53% 18-16
72% 23-9
TTL
41% 14-20
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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