MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
15-14 | Road
73
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
PANTHERSFIU
14-15 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
PANTHERS
100%
BLUE RAIDERS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)
MTSU By 1-7 points
23.0%
MTSU By 8-14 points
27.2%
FIU By 1-7 points
10.7%
FIU By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Middle Tennessee
82
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Florida International
72
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Simulated Score
Middle Tennessee
68
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Florida International
72
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Raiders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Raiders (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
MTSU @ FIU
73 - 67
Feb 4, 2026
FIU @ MTSU
88 - 84
Mar 8, 2025
FIU @ MTSU
56 - 78
Jan 2, 2025
MTSU @ FIU
73 - 69
Feb 10, 2024
MTSU @ FIU
68 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+15.4% more
Middle Tennessee: 36.4
vs
Florida International: 30.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Middle Tennessee: 47.2%
vs
Florida International: 44.4%
Steals (L5)
+30.8% more
Florida International: 7.1
vs
Middle Tennessee: 5.5
Blocks (L5)
+30.4% more
Florida International: 4.4
vs
Middle Tennessee: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score
82.0
73
FIU Score
72.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 30.2
20.0 / 37.0
Assists
12.4 / 12.9
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.4
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 47.2
42.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 75.4
63.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
30.8 / 36.4
38.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.1 / 5.5
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 11.7
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
FIU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
FIU
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
FIU
15-13-1
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
MTSU
FIU
MTSU
ML
58%
18-13
56%
18-14
65%
20-11
69%
22-10
ATS
52%
16-15
75%
24-8
65%
20-11
69%
22-10
TTL
65%
20-11
53%
17-15
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
