INDIANA STATE
SYCAMORESINST
11-20 | Road
62
VALPARAISO
BEACONSVAL
17-14 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
0%
BEACONS
100%
SYCAMORES
--
BEACONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Indiana State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around INST -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)
INST By 1-7 points
27.2%
INST By 8-14 points
23.0%
VAL By 1-7 points
18.6%
VAL By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana State
73
INDIANA STATE
Valparaiso
68
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
Indiana State
81
INDIANA STATE
Valparaiso
68
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sycamores
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sycamores
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sycamores (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Sycamores (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
INST @ VAL
62 - 63
Feb 15, 2026
INST @ VAL
75 - 76
Jan 31, 2026
VAL @ INST
76 - 72
Feb 5, 2025
VAL @ INST
62 - 80
Jan 8, 2025
INST @ VAL
95 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+67.2% more
Indiana State: 4.5
vs
Valparaiso: 1.5
Turnovers (L5)
+45.6% more
Indiana State: 15.6
vs
Valparaiso: 8.5
Steals (L5)
+22.1% more
Indiana State: 6.6
vs
Valparaiso: 5.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Indiana State: 47.1%
vs
Valparaiso: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
INST Score
73.0
62
VAL Score
68.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.3 / 35.9
35.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.8 / 16.0
12.0 / 19.0
Blocks
1.5 / 4.5
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 47.1
37.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 67.0
59.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
31.2 / 32.8
35.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.1 / 6.6
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 15.6
8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
VAL
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
VAL
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
INST
VAL
INST
ML
48%
16-17
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
53%
17-15
ATS
52%
17-16
62%
20-12
61%
20-13
53%
17-15
TTL
61%
20-13
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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