RUTGERS
SCARLET KNIGHTSRUTG
12-17 | Road
87
MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
24-5 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
SCARLET KNIGHTS
100%
SPARTANS
0%
SCARLET KNIGHTS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
RUTG By 1-7 points
3.3%
RUTG By 8-14 points
0.6%
MSU By 1-7 points
12.2%
MSU By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Rutgers
65
RUTGERS
Michigan State
82
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
Rutgers
62
RUTGERS
Michigan State
68
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+20.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
RUTG @ MSU
87 - 91
Jan 27, 2026
MSU @ RUTG
88 - 79
Jan 25, 2025
MSU @ RUTG
81 - 74
Jan 14, 2024
RUTG @ MSU
55 - 73
Feb 4, 2023
MSU @ RUTG
55 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+27.8% more
Michigan State: 35.2
vs
Rutgers: 27.6
Assists (L5)
+25.9% more
Michigan State: 16.4
vs
Rutgers: 13.0
Turnovers (L5)
+16.7% more
Michigan State: 9.1
vs
Rutgers: 7.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.5%
Michigan State: 39.1%
vs
Rutgers: 27.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score
65.0
87
MSU Score
82.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 27.6
33.0 / 56.0
Assists
16.4 / 13.0
19.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.6 / 2.5
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 42.9
58.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
79.4 / 77.3
83.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 27.6
38.0 / 21.0
Steals
3.6 / 6.5
4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 7.8
15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.3
MSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.3
MSU
Advantage
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +2.6
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
RUTG
MSU
RUTG
ML
71%
25-10
53%
18-16
61%
20-13
70%
23-10
ATS
71%
25-10
68%
23-11
61%
20-13
70%
23-10
TTL
49%
17-18
53%
18-16
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
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Michigan State's Exhibition Win Reveals Key Player Development a…
Rutgers Basketball Preseason: Standouts and Storylines from Tues…
Rutgers Lands Four-Star Forward Brandon Woodard for 2027 Class