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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

27-24-11  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

23-29-8  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Igor Shesterkin
GOALTENDER

Igor Shesterkin

#31 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Igor Shesterkin None-None 2.00 0.938 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.00
-- Save % 0.938
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
RANGERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 RangersNYR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

84.1%

Rangers Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

17.5%

TOR By 2-3 goals

37.2%

NYR By 1 goal

6.6%

NYR By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
1
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 NYR @ TOR 3 - 4
Mar 5, 2026 TOR @ NYR 2 - 6
Oct 16, 2025 NYR @ TOR 1 - 2
Mar 20, 2025 TOR @ NYR 4 - 3
Feb 28, 2025 TOR @ NYR 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +29.3% more
Toronto: 28.4 vs New York: 20.1
Power Play % (L5) +19.1%
Toronto: 39.1% vs New York: 20.0%
Blocked Shots (L5) +14.2% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs New York: 14.7
Takeaways (L5) +11.4% more
Toronto: 5.2 vs New York: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 2
NYR Score 1.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
72%MONEY28%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
TOR
NYR
TOR
ML
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
ATS
80% 4-1
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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