Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Dukes UL @ JMU

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

11-21  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 6:00 PM ET
Pensacola Bay Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

17-14  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (James Madison)
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

27.4%

Dukes Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

UL By 1-7 points

16.9%

UL By 8-14 points

6.8%

JMU By 1-7 points

26.8%

JMU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
LOUISIANA
72
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
70
LOUISIANA
82
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 UL @ JMU 72 - 87
Feb 4, 2026 UL @ JMU 64 - 61
Jan 4, 2024 JMU @ UL 68 - 61
Feb 18, 2023 UL @ JMU 68 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.7% more
James Madison: 10.7 vs Louisiana: 9.2
Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
James Madison: 46.7% vs Louisiana: 40.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
James Madison: 71.9% vs Louisiana: 69.7%
Blocks (L5) +35.6% more
Louisiana: 3.7 vs James Madison: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 66.0 72
JMU Score 72.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 35.4 23.0 / 31.0
Assists 10.0 / 10.1 14.0 / 4.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.7 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 40.1 59.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 69.7 77.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 34.9 41.0 / 23.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.3 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 9.2 16.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
JMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
UL
JMU
UL
ML
64% 21-12
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
63% 19-11
ATS
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
63% 19-11
TTL
67% 22-11
62% 20-12
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 1 hour, 26 minutes ago
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
thesunflower 1 hour, 34 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 1 hour, 38 minutes ago
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 7 hours, 40 minutes ago
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago