FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
KNIGHTSFDU
11-20 | Road
61
MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
15-16 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
LAKERS
0%
KNIGHTS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Mercyhurst)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MERC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)
FDU By 1-7 points
20.1%
FDU By 8-14 points
9.3%
MERC By 1-7 points
27.4%
MERC By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairleigh Dickinson
73
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Mercyhurst
77
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
Fairleigh Dickinson
73
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Mercyhurst
78
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lakers (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o132.5
Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
FDU @ MERC
61 - 70
Feb 7, 2026
MERC @ FDU
52 - 55
Jan 2, 2026
FDU @ MERC
74 - 67
Feb 20, 2025
FDU @ MERC
60 - 65
Feb 1, 2025
MERC @ FDU
67 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+219.0% more
Mercyhurst: 4.0
vs
Fairleigh Dickinson: 1.3
Steals (L5)
+67.0% more
Mercyhurst: 7.0
vs
Fairleigh Dickinson: 4.2
Assists (L5)
+11.8% more
Mercyhurst: 13.3
vs
Fairleigh Dickinson: 11.9
Rebounding (L5)
+9.0% more
Mercyhurst: 36.0
vs
Fairleigh Dickinson: 33.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FDU Score
73.0
61
MERC Score
77.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 33.5
35.0 / 22.0
Assists
13.3 / 11.9
14.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.0 / 1.3
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 41.9
51.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 71.4
88.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 33.1
33.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.0 / 4.2
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
7.3 / 13.3
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FDU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FDU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FDU
9-20-0
O: 31.0% / U: 69.0%
Total +/-: -2.5
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
FDU
MERC
FDU
ML
59%
20-14
65%
20-11
79%
26-7
74%
23-8
ATS
62%
21-13
68%
21-10
79%
26-7
74%
23-8
TTL
53%
18-16
58%
18-13
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
Rutgers Lands Four-Star Forward Brandon Woodard for 2027 Class
Timberwolves Sign Gonzaga Great Drew Timme to Training Camp Deal
UCLA Chancellor Ousts Athletic Director Amid Financial Crisis, N…
UCLA Shakes Up Athletics Leadership: Former Lakers Exec Takes He…