Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Eagles UNA @ FGCU

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

9-20  |  Road

58
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 2:30 PM ET
UNF Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

14-17  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
LIONS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LionsUNA (-3.5) 0 EaglesFGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

42.1%

Eagles Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FGCU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FGCU)

UNA By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNA By 8-14 points

18.6%

FGCU By 1-7 points

23.0%

FGCU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
NORTH ALABAMA
74
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Simulated Score
68
NORTH ALABAMA
76
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 UNA @ FGCU 58 - 69
Jan 29, 2026 UNA @ FGCU 64 - 72
Jan 3, 2026 FGCU @ UNA 72 - 55
Jan 9, 2025 UNA @ FGCU 70 - 75
Feb 3, 2024 FGCU @ UNA 69 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.0% more
North Alabama: 12.4 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 8.2
Assists (L5) +68.8% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 13.5 vs North Alabama: 8.0
Blocks (L5) +60.8% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 4.6 vs North Alabama: 2.8
Steals (L5) +39.4% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 7.9 vs North Alabama: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNA Score 76.0 58
FGCU Score 74.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.8 / 26.1 24.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.5 / 8.0 13.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.8 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 41.4 48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 70.4 71.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 33.0 35.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.9 / 5.7 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 12.4 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
FGCU Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA Advantage
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FGCU
UNA
FGCU
UNA
ML
58% 19-14
43% 13-17
67% 22-11
57% 16-12
ATS
61% 20-13
60% 18-12
67% 22-11
57% 16-12
TTL
61% 20-13
63% 19-11
100% 33-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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