ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
31-31 | Road
131
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
26-34 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
BUCKS
0%
HAWKS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
ATL By 1-7 points
6.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
1.7%
MIL By 1-7 points
18.6%
MIL By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
107
ATLANTA
Milwaukee
120
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
125
ATLANTA
Milwaukee
110
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (+1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
MIL @ ATL
99 - 122
Mar 4, 2026
ATL @ MIL
131 - 113
Jan 19, 2026
MIL @ ATL
112 - 110
Mar 30, 2025
ATL @ MIL
145 - 124
Mar 4, 2025
MIL @ ATL
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+14.1% more
Milwaukee: 16.0
vs
Atlanta: 14.1
Blocks (L5)
+35.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Milwaukee: 3.2
Steals (L5)
+31.5% more
Atlanta: 10.6
vs
Milwaukee: 7.2
Assists (L5)
+27.7% more
Atlanta: 31.5
vs
Milwaukee: 22.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
107.0
131
MIL Score
120.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 34.5
33.0 / 44.0
Assists
22.8 / 31.5
27.0 / 33.0
Blocks
3.2 / 5.0
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 47.4
50.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 79.1
70.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
41.1 / 53.6
41.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.2 / 10.6
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 14.1
15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
ATL
MIL
ATL
ML
64%
61-35
50%
52-52
60%
49-32
55%
48-40
ATS
68%
65-31
53%
55-48-1
60%
49-32
55%
48-40
TTL
55%
53-43
53%
55-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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