Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dolphins @ Knights JAX @ BELL

JACKSONVILLE

DOLPHINSJAX

12-19  |  Road

79
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 12:00 PM ET
UNF Arena
View Odds Details →

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

12-18  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
DOLPHINS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Bellarmine)
DolphinsJAX (-3.5) 0 KnightsBELL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

8.1%

Knights Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BELL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)

JAX By 1-7 points

5.8%

JAX By 8-14 points

1.4%

BELL By 1-7 points

16.9%

BELL By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
74
JACKSONVILLE
88
BELLARMINE
Simulated Score
71
JACKSONVILLE
78
BELLARMINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 JAX @ BELL 79 - 82
Jan 22, 2026 BELL @ JAX 77 - 70
Feb 8, 2025 BELL @ JAX 64 - 73
Jan 9, 2025 JAX @ BELL 74 - 59
Jan 27, 2024 JAX @ BELL 63 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.1% more
Bellarmine: 15.4 vs Jacksonville: 13.5
Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Bellarmine: 55.5% vs Jacksonville: 47.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Bellarmine: 38.9% vs Jacksonville: 34.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.3%
Bellarmine: 82.4% vs Jacksonville: 80.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 74.0 79
BELL Score 88.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.9 / 34.5 45.0 / 47.0
Assists 15.4 / 13.5 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.9 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 55.5 / 47.6 52.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 82.4 / 80.1 85.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 27.8 / 37.3 29.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.6 / 6.2 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.6 7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
BELL Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.4
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BELL
JAX
BELL
JAX
ML
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
94% 29-2
60% 18-12
ATS
72% 23-9
65% 20-11
94% 29-2
61% 19-12
TTL
50% 16-16
65% 20-11
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day ago
Rutgers Lands Four-Star Forward Brandon Woodard for 2027 Class
yahoo 1 week, 1 day ago
NC State Basketball: Justin Gainey Era Begins with 32-Game Slate…
si 4 weeks ago
Boyd County Duo's Unforgettable Encounter with Larry Bird at His…
ashlandbeacon 1 month, 1 week ago
How Jaxon Kohler's Versatile Game Elevates BYU's Frontcourt
si 1 month, 2 weeks ago