LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
12-19 | Road
62
LINDENWOOD
LIONSLIN
17-14 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
LIONS
0%
TROJANS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LINDENWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Lindenwood)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LIN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIN)
LR By 1-7 points
16.9%
LR By 8-14 points
6.8%
LIN By 1-7 points
26.8%
LIN By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Little Rock
76
LITTLE ROCK
Lindenwood
82
LINDENWOOD
Simulated Score
Little Rock
70
LITTLE ROCK
Lindenwood
75
LINDENWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lions
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
LR @ LIN
62 - 72
Feb 5, 2026
LIN @ LR
79 - 74
Jan 10, 2026
LR @ LIN
82 - 74
Feb 20, 2025
LIN @ LR
93 - 92
Jan 25, 2025
LR @ LIN
78 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.4% more
Lindenwood: 7.1
vs
Little Rock: 5.5
Turnovers (L5)
+23.8% more
Lindenwood: 11.4
vs
Little Rock: 9.2
Rebounding (L5)
+9.3% more
Lindenwood: 37.4
vs
Little Rock: 34.2
Assists (L5)
+31.9% more
Little Rock: 14.9
vs
Lindenwood: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LR Score
76.0
62
LIN Score
82.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 40.9
13.0 / 14.0
Assists
10.1 / 14.9
10.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.8
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 47.5
33.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
67.2 / 69.7
65.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 34.2
48.0 / 51.0
Steals
7.1 / 5.5
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 9.2
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
LIN
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
LIN
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIN
LR
LIN
LR
ML
47%
15-17
52%
16-15
61%
19-12
68%
17-8
ATS
34%
11-21
45%
14-17
61%
19-12
68%
17-8
TTL
53%
17-15
58%
18-13
100%
31-0
100%
25-0
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