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FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

15-14  |  Road

75
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Petersen Events Center
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

11-18  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
SEMINOLES --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Pittsburgh)
SeminolesFSU (-3.5) 0 PanthersPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seminoles Cover

30.9%

Panthers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PITT -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

FSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

FSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

PITT By 1-7 points

27.2%

PITT By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
67
FLORIDA STATE
72
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
70
FLORIDA STATE
75
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 FSU @ PITT 75 - 74
Jan 15, 2025 PITT @ FSU 70 - 82
Mar 5, 2024 FSU @ PITT 73 - 88
Feb 11, 2023 PITT @ FSU 83 - 75
Jan 21, 2023 FSU @ PITT 71 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.8% more
Pittsburgh: 12.4 vs Florida State: 9.7
Assists (L5) +12.7% more
Pittsburgh: 14.1 vs Florida State: 12.5
Steals (L5) +8.5% more
Pittsburgh: 7.4 vs Florida State: 6.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Pittsburgh: 35.6% vs Florida State: 32.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 67.0 75
PITT Score 72.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 32.0 33.0 / 41.0
Assists 14.1 / 12.5 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.2 / 4.6 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 46.0 41.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 74.6 76.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 34.7 37.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.4 / 6.8 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 9.7 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
PITT
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
FSU
PITT
FSU
ML
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
45% 15-18
59% 19-13
ATS
64% 21-12
55% 18-15
45% 15-18
59% 19-13
TTL
61% 20-13
48% 16-17
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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