Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Friars MARQ @ PROV

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

10-19  |  Road

78
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Amica Mutual Pavilion
View Odds Details →

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

14-15  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
FRIARS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
FRIARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Providence)
Golden EaglesMARQ (-3.5) 0 FriarsPROV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

38.2%

Friars Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)

MARQ By 1-7 points

21.6%

MARQ By 8-14 points

10.7%

PROV By 1-7 points

27.2%

PROV By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
83
MARQUETTE
86
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
71
MARQUETTE
78
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Friars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Friars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Friars (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Friars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 MARQ @ PROV 78 - 56
Jan 19, 2026 PROV @ MARQ 104 - 105
Feb 25, 2025 PROV @ MARQ 52 - 82
Dec 31, 2024 MARQ @ PROV 78 - 50
Mar 15, 2024 PROV @ MARQ 68 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +18.5% more
Providence: 36.4 vs Marquette: 30.7
Free Throw % (L5) +17.9%
Providence: 78.7% vs Marquette: 60.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.6%
Providence: 42.3% vs Marquette: 28.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Providence: 49.8% vs Marquette: 45.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MARQ Score 83.0 78
PROV Score 86.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.3 / 28.7 23.0 / 32.0
Assists 10.4 / 13.4 7.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.0 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 45.0 31.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 60.8 71.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 30.7 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 3.5 / 9.5 8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.4 19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
PROV Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
MARQ
PROV
MARQ
ML
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
67% 20-10
62% 20-12
ATS
50% 16-16
53% 17-15
67% 20-10
62% 20-12
TTL
44% 14-18
50% 16-16
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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