NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
18-13 | Road
85
OAKLAND
GOLDEN GRIZZLIESOAK
16-15 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
0%
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
100%
NORSE
--
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NKU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)
NKU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NKU By 8-14 points
18.6%
OAK By 1-7 points
23.0%
OAK By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Kentucky
85
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Oakland
83
OAKLAND
Simulated Score
Northern Kentucky
75
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Oakland
78
OAKLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Norse
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Norse (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Golden Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o162.5
Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
NKU @ OAK
85 - 84
Feb 1, 2026
NKU @ OAK
65 - 76
Dec 17, 2025
OAK @ NKU
82 - 77
Feb 1, 2025
NKU @ OAK
84 - 75
Jan 11, 2025
OAK @ NKU
68 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.0% more
Oakland: 16.8
vs
Northern Kentucky: 14.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Oakland: 37.9%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 34.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
Oakland: 74.4%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 71.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Oakland: 50.6%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 47.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NKU Score
85.0
85
OAK Score
83.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 34.2
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
16.8 / 14.9
16.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.1
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 47.4
42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
74.4 / 71.1
75.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 34.0
43.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.7
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 11.9
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
OAK
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
OAK
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
OAK
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OAK
NKU
OAK
NKU
ML
62%
20-12
53%
18-16
59%
19-13
65%
22-12
ATS
50%
16-16
56%
19-15
59%
19-13
65%
22-12
TTL
62%
20-12
68%
23-11
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
