Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Gophers @ Hoosiers MINN @ IU

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

14-15  |  Road

47
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 6:30 PM ET
Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

17-12  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GOPHERS
100%
📊
HOOSIERS
0%
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
HOOSIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Indiana)
Golden GophersMINN (-3.5) 0 HoosiersIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Gophers Cover

9.7%

Hoosiers Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

MINN By 1-7 points

6.8%

MINN By 8-14 points

1.7%

IU By 1-7 points

18.6%

IU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
MINNESOTA
87
INDIANA
Simulated Score
69
MINNESOTA
78
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hoosiers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hoosiers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hoosiers (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Hoosiers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 MINN @ IU 47 - 77
Dec 3, 2025 IU @ MINN 64 - 73
Dec 9, 2024 MINN @ IU 67 - 82
Mar 6, 2024 IU @ MINN 70 - 58
Jan 12, 2024 MINN @ IU 62 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.4% more
Indiana: 8.9 vs Minnesota: 7.6
Steals (L5) +50.9% more
Minnesota: 5.4 vs Indiana: 2.7
Assists (L5) +30.5% more
Minnesota: 19.0 vs Indiana: 13.2
Blocks (L5) +18.2% more
Minnesota: 3.2 vs Indiana: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 74.0 47
IU Score 87.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 43.5 42.0 / 24.0
Assists 13.2 / 19.0 17.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.2 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 51.0 57.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 79.7 63.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 25.0 / 24.0 37.0 / 24.0
Steals 2.7 / 5.4 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 7.6 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
IU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
IU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
MINN
IU
MINN
ML
66% 21-11
48% 16-17
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
ATS
53% 17-15
55% 18-15
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
TTL
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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