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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

27-24-10  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Prudential Center
View Odds Details →

NEW JERSEY

DEVILSNJ

30-29-2  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
@
Jonas Siegenthaler
GOALTENDER

Jonas Siegenthaler

#71 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Anthony Stolarz None-None 2.77 0.936 --
Jonas Siegenthaler None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.77 GAA --
0.936 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
DEVILS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW JERSEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 DevilsNJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Devils Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NJ +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NJ)

TOR By 1 goal

19.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

NJ By 1 goal

12.1%

NJ By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
2
NEW JERSEY
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
5
NEW JERSEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Devils Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Devils (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Devils (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 TOR @ NJ 3 - 4
Dec 30, 2025 NJ @ TOR 0 - 4
Oct 21, 2025 NJ @ TOR 5 - 2
Jan 16, 2025 NJ @ TOR 3 - 4
Dec 10, 2024 TOR @ NJ 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +31.0%
Toronto: 39.1% vs New Jersey: 8.1%
Blocked Shots (L5) +22.1% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs New Jersey: 13.3
Hits (L5) +19.4% more
Toronto: 22.3 vs New Jersey: 18.0
Faceoff % (L5) +10.8%
Toronto: 55.2% vs New Jersey: 44.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 3
NJ Score 2.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
91%MONEY9%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NJ
TOR
NJ
TOR
ML
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-2-1
100% 4-0
50% 1-1-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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