Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Lakers NO @ LAL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

19-43  |  Road

101
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

36-24  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
PELICANS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Los Angeles)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

30.9%

Lakers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

NO By 1-7 points

18.6%

NO By 8-14 points

8.0%

LAL By 1-7 points

27.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
118
NEW ORLEANS
123
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
NEW ORLEANS
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+8) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u242.0 Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim u242.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 NO @ LAL 101 - 110
Jan 6, 2026 LAL @ NO 111 - 103
Nov 30, 2025 NO @ LAL 121 - 133
Nov 14, 2025 LAL @ NO 118 - 104
Apr 4, 2025 NO @ LAL 108 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.2% more
Los Angeles: 9.5 vs New Orleans: 7.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Los Angeles: 41.8% vs New Orleans: 35.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Los Angeles: 50.2% vs New Orleans: 47.0%
Turnovers (L5) +34.3% more
New Orleans: 16.9 vs Los Angeles: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 118.0 101
LAL Score 123.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.8 / 35.1 30.0 / 28.0
Assists 28.2 / 27.0 29.0 / 29.0
Blocks 6.0 / 7.0 12.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 47.0 47.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 80.0 81.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 39.9 / 46.3 48.0 / 41.0
Steals 9.5 / 7.6 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 16.9 22.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
NO
LAL
NO
ML
61% 68-43
62% 98-61
54% 49-42
58% 48-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
68% 107-51-1
54% 49-42
58% 48-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
75% 119-40
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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