Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Timberwolves MEM @ MIN

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

23-36  |  Road

110
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

38-23  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
GRIZZLIES --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Minnesota)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

8.1%

Timberwolves Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MEM By 1-7 points

5.8%

MEM By 8-14 points

1.4%

MIN By 1-7 points

16.9%

MIN By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
115
MEMPHIS
129
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
107
MEMPHIS
118
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o236.0 Loss
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim u236.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 MEM @ MIN 110 - 117
Feb 2, 2026 MIN @ MEM 128 - 137
Jan 31, 2026 MIN @ MEM 131 - 114
Dec 17, 2025 MEM @ MIN 116 - 110
Apr 10, 2025 MIN @ MEM 141 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +11.7% more
Minnesota: 15.2 vs Memphis: 13.6
Free Throw % (L5) +18.5%
Memphis: 86.2% vs Minnesota: 67.6%
Steals (L5) +15.5% more
Memphis: 11.9 vs Minnesota: 10.1
Assists (L5) +11.8% more
Memphis: 31.1 vs Minnesota: 27.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 115.0 110
MIN Score 129.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 39.4 29.0 / 39.0
Assists 27.5 / 31.1 19.0 / 27.0
Blocks 6.1 / 6.6 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 49.8 48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 86.2 79.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 39.0 52.0 / 33.0
Steals 10.1 / 11.9 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 13.6 18.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
MEM
MIN
MEM
ML
54% 63-53
57% 59-44
54% 50-43
50% 41-41
ATS
58% 67-49
63% 65-38
54% 50-43
50% 41-41
TTL
63% 72-43-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 93-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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