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UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

25-5  |  Road

76
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Schar Center
View Odds Details →

ELON

PHOENIXELON

14-16  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
0%
📊
PHOENIX
100%
SEAHAWKS --
PHOENIX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
SeahawksUNCW (-3.5) 0 PhoenixELON (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seahawks Cover

75.8%

Phoenix Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCW -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)

UNCW By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNCW By 8-14 points

25.3%

ELON By 1-7 points

15.3%

ELON By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
75
UNC WILMINGTON
68
ELON
Simulated Score
78
UNC WILMINGTON
68
ELON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Seahawks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 UNCW @ ELON 76 - 57
Feb 12, 2026 ELON @ UNCW 54 - 65
Feb 15, 2025 ELON @ UNCW 81 - 70
Feb 17, 2024 ELON @ UNCW 73 - 72
Jan 18, 2024 UNCW @ ELON 82 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +28.6% more
UNC Wilmington: 42.2 vs Elon: 30.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.8%
UNC Wilmington: 39.5% vs Elon: 30.7%
Assists (L5) +8.2% more
UNC Wilmington: 13.8 vs Elon: 12.7
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
UNC Wilmington: 42.9% vs Elon: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCW Score 75.0 76
ELON Score 68.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 39.5 18.0 / 39.0
Assists 12.7 / 13.8 10.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.4 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 42.9 32.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 67.9 89.0 / 33.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 42.2 34.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.4 / 4.7 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.6 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
ELON
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCW Advantage
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
ELON
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ELON
UNCW
ELON
UNCW
ML
61% 19-12
64% 21-12
71% 22-9
52% 17-16
ATS
55% 17-14
58% 19-14
71% 22-9
52% 17-16
TTL
52% 16-15
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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