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TOWSON

TIGERSTOW

16-14  |  Road

69
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 6:30 PM ET
Stony Brook Arena
View Odds Details →

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

17-13  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
SEAWOLVES
100%
TIGERS --
SEAWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
TOWSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Towson)
TigersTOW (-3.5) 0 SeawolvesSTBK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

78.8%

Seawolves Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOW -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOW)

TOW By 1-7 points

25.3%

TOW By 8-14 points

26.2%

STBK By 1-7 points

13.7%

STBK By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
77
TOWSON
69
STONY BROOK
Simulated Score
67
TOWSON
74
STONY BROOK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seawolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Seawolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 TOW @ STBK 69 - 57
Feb 12, 2026 STBK @ TOW 57 - 69
Feb 6, 2025 TOW @ STBK 66 - 59
Jan 18, 2025 STBK @ TOW 49 - 53
Jan 11, 2024 STBK @ TOW 64 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.1% more
Towson: 5.8 vs Stony Brook: 2.7
Rebounding (L5) +8.1% more
Towson: 37.5 vs Stony Brook: 34.4
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Towson: 72.6% vs Stony Brook: 70.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Towson: 41.6% vs Stony Brook: 39.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOW Score 77.0 69
STBK Score 69.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 32.6 34.0 / 40.0
Assists 12.0 / 9.9 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.7 / 5.8 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 39.8 / 41.6 37.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 72.6 75.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 37.5 31.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.2 / 3.5 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 8.6 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOW Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
STBK
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOW
14-17-1 (45.2%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOW
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6% Total +/-: -5.5
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STBK
TOW
STBK
TOW
ML
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
71% 22-9
62% 20-12
ATS
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
71% 22-9
62% 20-12
TTL
65% 20-11
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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