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KANSAS

JAYHAWKSKU

21-8  |  Road

60
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

15-14  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
JAYHAWKS
0%
📊
SUN DEVILS
100%
JAYHAWKS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kansas)
JayhawksKU (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jayhawks Cover

75.8%

Sun Devils Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around KU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)

KU By 1-7 points

26.2%

KU By 8-14 points

25.3%

ASU By 1-7 points

15.3%

ASU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
76
KANSAS
69
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
65
KANSAS
80
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jayhawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jayhawks (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 KU @ ASU 60 - 70
Jan 8, 2025 ASU @ KU 55 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.4% more
Kansas: 10.6 vs Arizona State: 9.1
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Kansas: 86.0% vs Arizona State: 78.4%
Assists (L5) +33.8% more
Arizona State: 14.8 vs Kansas: 11.0
Steals (L5) +20.4% more
Arizona State: 5.6 vs Kansas: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KU Score 76.0 60
ASU Score 69.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 34.8 32.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.8 / 11.0 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 6.0 / 5.2 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 40.8 32.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 78.4 / 86.0 80.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 32.7 43.0 / 55.0
Steals 5.6 / 4.6 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 10.6 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -4.1
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
KU
ASU
KU
ML
52% 17-16
57% 20-15
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
ATS
52% 17-16
49% 17-18
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
TTL
64% 21-12
60% 21-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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